Following 7.5 per cent growth in the first six months and expectations of further stimulus, UOB revised its full-year GDP forecast to 7.5 per cent, up from 6.9 per cent. Vietnam’s real GDP expanded 7.96 per cent on-year in the second quarter, outpacing Bloomberg’s 6.85 per cent estimate and UOB’s own 6.1 per cent projection, bringing first-half growth to its highest level since 2011.

UOB’s September 17 report highlighted that Vietnam’s strong first-half growth was underpinned by a 14 per cent on-year export surge, boosted by improved sentiment after the US lowered its ‘Liberation Day’ tariff on April 2 to a temporary 10 per cent baseline for 90 days. Tariff uncertainty eased further in the second half as the US finalised country-specific rates ahead of the August 1 deadline, with Vietnam’s rate set at 20 per cent.

Data from July indicates that growth momentum remains positive, though the outlook is tempered by tariff developments. Exports rose 17 per cent on-year to a record $42.3 billion, bringing year-to-date growth close to 16 per cent. However, the trade surplus narrowed to $9.5 billion in the first seven months, compared to $14 billion a year earlier, due to higher imports from front-loaded export orders.

“Despite tariff pressures, annual exports could still rise by about 10 per cent (compared to 14 per cent in 2024), assuming a moderate 1–5 per cent pace for the rest of 2025,” UOB said in the report.

Other indicators also signal resilience. The Purchasing Managers’ Index rebounded to 52.4 in July after three straight months below 50, while manufacturing output rose 9 per cent on-year despite a high base. Overseas capital inflows remained strong, with $13.6 billion in realised investment as of July, up from $12.6 billion in the same period last year, suggesting full-year inflows could surpass $20 billion (compared to $25.4 billion in 2024).

Amid external headwinds, Vietnam announced a $48 billion infrastructure scheme in mid-August, spanning 250 projects. Of these, 129 state-funded initiatives worth $18 billion will prioritise urban development and transport, while 121 projects valued at $30.5 billion will draw financing from other sources, including foreign enterprises.

“Despite tariff threats and uncertainty, Vietnam’s economy continues to show resilience and dynamism. Export performance has been particularly strong, though risks remain if US demand weakens amid tariff-induced price pressures,” UOB said.

Following robust 7.5 per cent growth in the first half of 2025 and expected support from stronger government investment, UOB revised its full-year GDP forecast to 7.5 per cent, up from 6.9 per cent previously and just under 7.1 per cent in 2024. Growth is projected at 7.6 per cent on-year in the third quarter and 7.2 per cent in the fourth. For 2026, UOB maintains its projection at 7 per cent. By comparison, the government is targeting 8.3–8.5 per cent growth this year.

Inflation, however, shows little sign of easing. Headline inflation reached 3.3 per cent year-to-date in July, versus 3.6 per cent on average in 2024 and 3.26 per cent in 2023. Housing and construction materials (5.9 per cent on-year average so far, with an 18.8 per cent weighting) and healthcare (18 per cent on-year average, with a 5.4 per cent weighting) remain the main drivers.

“Combined with decent growth prospects in the second half of 2025 and persistent VND weakness, these factors would constrain the State Bank of Vietnam’s (SBV) ability to ease policy,” UOB said, expecting the refinancing rate to remain at 4.5 per cent.

“If business and labour market conditions deteriorate sharply, there is a possibility for the SBV to cut the refinancing rate in a single step to the COVID-19 low of 4 per cent, though this is not our base case,” the report added.

Bucking the regional trend, the VND slid to a record low of 26,436 per USD in August, down 3.4 per cent year-to-date and marking its fourth straight year of depreciation. While Vietnam secured a trade deal with the US that lowered tariff rates to 20 per cent from the 46 per cent announced in April, uncertainty remains over the 40 per cent transhipment tariff.

“This could prompt firms to reassess supply chain strategies, potentially dampening Vietnam’s attractiveness for foreign investment,” UOB said.

Looking ahead, the VND may continue to underperform compared to regional peers in capturing any upside from expected US Federal Reserve rate cuts. UOB’s upward revision of Vietnam’s GDP growth forecast to 7.5 per cent in 2025, from 7.1 per cent in 2024, could lend some support. Its updated USD/VND projections are 26,300 in the fourth quarter of 2025, 26,200 in the first quarter of 2026, 26,100 in the second, and 26,000 in the third.

Citi raises forecast for Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth Citi remains cautiously optimistic on Vietnam’s growth outlook, although US tariffs on Vietnam will increase post a recently agreed trade deal.

ADB trims Vietnam’s GDP forecast to 6.3 per cent for 2025 The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised Vietnam’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 6.3 per cent from the 6.6 per cent it predicted in April.

Vietnam’s export resilience tested amid rising US tariff pressure As the United States slaps a 20 per cent countervailing tariff on Vietnamese exports, concerns loom over the policy’s implications for Vietnam’s growth trajectory. Despite mounting trade headwinds, Le Trung Hieu, deputy director general of the National Statistics Office, outlines why the country remains confident of meeting its ambitious target of over 8 per cent GDP growth in 2025.

World Bank forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth to reach 6.6 per cent in 2025 Vietnam’s GDP growth is forecast to reach 6.6 per cent in 2025, according to the latest report by the World Bank.

The 2025 WIPO Global Innovation Index (GII) ranks 139 economies. Switzerland leads, followed by Sweden, the United States, South Korea, and Singapore, while others are catching up. China entered the top 10 for the first time, and India, Turkey, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Morocco are all rising fast. Vietnam is one of the middle-income economies within the GII top 70 which has climbed fastest in the ranking since 2013.

The Vietnamese government has assigned the Ministry of Science and Technology to be the focal point for monitoring and coordinating the GII. At the same time, ministries and localities also share responsibility for improving this index. As a result, Vietnam has made marked improvements in its GII rankings, jumping from 59^th in 2016 to 44^th in 2024.

In the innovation input sub-index, Vietnam moved up three spots to 50^th from 53^rd in 2023. The innovation output sub-index includes five pillars: institutions, human capital and research, infrastructure, market sophistication, and business sophistication.

Vietnam’s innovation output sub-index slipped slightly from 36^th in 2024 to 37^th this year. This sub-index reflects performance in knowledge and technology outputs, alongside creative outputs.

Vietnam ranks second in the lower middle-income group, trailing behind India (38^th). Other countries ranked above Vietnam in the GII 2025 are mainly high-income, developed economies with a high ratio of research and development spending relative to their GDP, including China (10^th), Malaysia (34^th), and Turkey (43^rd).

ASEAN is gaining ground in the global innovation landscape. Led by Singapore (5th), strong performers also include Malaysia (34^th), Vietnam (44^th), Thailand (45^th), and the Philippines (50^th). What is more, Vietnam and Indonesia (55^th) continue to rank among the GII’s innovation overperformers, for the 15^th and 4^th consecutive years, respectively.

THACO unveils latest innovations at national showcase THACO is showcasing its latest industrial and technological innovations at the National Achievements Exhibition in Hanoi, held to mark 80 years of independence and national progress.

Socioeconomic development intertwined with three pillars The three pillars of science and technology, innovation, and digital transformation are considered the central driving forces that contribute to creating sociometric development gains.

Vietnam-Australia Forum highlights drive for public sector innovation The third Vietnam-Australia Forum was held in Hanoi on September 11 during the official visit of Governor-General Sam Mostyn AC of Australia.

This announcement was made on September 15 in Hanoi as part of the Vietnam Private Sector Economic Forum (VPSF) 2025.

At the session, Ha Phan, founder of HR Companion, a startup in the human resources sector, shared her personal journey and the challenges she has faced after two and a half years of entrepreneurship.

Despite having no difficulty attracting clients thanks to her prior experience, Ha Phan revealed that she struggled with enterprise management issues, particularly those related to corporate income tax and VAT.

“For a founder in the early stages, there are just too many burdens on the person leading the company – from finding ways to sustain the business and retaining talent amid competition from larger corporations, to driving growth,” Ha said. “I simply didn’t have time to learn fundamental management skills.”

“I wish that at the very beginning, there was a unit in place to support us with tax, management, and finance-related issues,” she expressed.

Responding to her concern, one shared by thousands of young businesses across Vietnam, Bui Thu Thuy, deputy director general of the Department of Private Enterprise and Collective Economy Development under the Ministry of Finance (MoF), noted that Resolution No. 68-NQ/TW on private sector development clearly stipulates that newly established enterprises will be eligible for free training courses.

Thuy said that the department is working to ensure that every newly registered business receives a free voucher to access essential training on enterprise management.

“The specifics of this initiative will be outlined in Resolution No.138/NQ-CP of 2025, which sets forth the government’s action plan to implement Resolution 68,” she said.

According to Thuy, the 10,000 CEO Training Programme is a top priority under direct government instruction. The Department is currently coordinated with both international and domestic universities to be able to realise the goal of providing learning vouchers to selected CEOs.

In her words, the curriculum will comprise of 60 per cent practical content, with theory playing only a foundational role. Courses will be available in both online and offline formats, and each CEO can choose a learning track based on their individual needs. The government is considering partially subsidising overseas study for participants in the programme.

The department’s executive representative also called on large and prominent businesses to support the socialisation of the programme and to collaborate with the MoF.

“Our approach is to source from the market, meaning we won’t create new courses ourselves, but will instead adopt existing courses from universities,” she explained.

In addition, the MoF is set to work with relevant stakeholders to establish a standardised framework for enterprise management, tailored to Vietnamese businesses. Based on this framework, universities will either develop new courses or enhance existing ones to meet the defined standards.

“The programme is in its final stages of development and is expected to be submitted to the government this year, with full implementation beginning in 2026,” Thuy said.

As a member of the drafting committee for Resolution 68, Thuy also emphasised that the resolution institutionalises many long-standing issues faced by enterprises. Notably, it introduces the principle of ‘non-criminalisation of economic relations’, a new and progressive concept.

She stressed that Resolution 68 is not merely a policy of the Politburo, but one that has drawn the active participation of various ministries, government agencies, and top-level leaders.

“Following the enforcement of Resolution 138 which guides the implementation of Resolution 68 from May 16, starting next year, several tax incentive policies will come into effect, for instance, newly established enterprises will enjoy a three-year tax exemption,” the MoF representative added.

FPT University and Dream Lab harness AI to cultivate startups FPT University and Dream Lab on July 31 signed a MoU to launch a groundbreaking initiative aimed at building Vietnam’s most dynamic startup and entrepreneurial ecosystem for students.

Tracxn report highlights Vietnam’s fast-rising startup ecosystem Vietnam’s startup ecosystem is emerging as a regional force, backed by rising capital inflows and a growing number of unicorns.

Forest Ecopreneur 2025 wraps up with new pathways for green startups The Forest Ecopreneur Program has concluded its 2025 cycle, strengthening startups in forest conservation and supporting sustainable livelihoods.

On September 16, the University of Economics and Business under Vietnam National University, Hanoi (VNU-UEB), in collaboration with the Vietnam Institute of Economics and World Institute under Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, held the 2025 Economic Forum.

Nguyen Duc Hien, Deputy Head of the Party Central Committee’s Policy and Strategy Department, said that Vietnam is entering a historically significant phase of development. The Party and the state have set an ambitious goal of achieving double-digit economic growth during 2026-2030, viewing this not only as a strategic aspiration but also as a measure of the nation’s resilience, vision, and macroeconomic management capacity.

“However, to realise such ambitious goals, we cannot continue to rely on traditional growth drivers such as resource exploitation, cheap labour, or capital expansion. Vietnam must forge modern, sustainable drivers suited to the digital and green eras, while fully utilising opportunities from international economic integration to achieve breakthroughs,” he said.

Key drivers highlighted include: developing a modern institutional framework and a transparent, fair environment to unlock all societal resources; advancing science, technology, innovation, and digital transformation as primary drivers of productivity and competitiveness; and focusing on highly qualified people, particularly in high-tech, digital economy, green economy, and global governance sectors.

“At the same time, we must enhance the role of the domestic private sector, improve foreign investment attraction efficiency in connection with technology transfer, and foster a sustainable production-innovation ecosystem. Above all, economic growth must be linked with green development, environmental protection, social equity, and improve quality of life for the people,” Hien underlined.

Le Trung Thanh, rector of VNU-UEB, reaffirmed that Vietnam urgently needs to build modern and sustainable growth drivers based on transparent institutions, innovation, digital transformation, and green development, while seizing opportunities from global integration.

“We are living in an era where economic rules, power structures, and global value chains are being rewritten. The post-pandemic world, along with geopolitical conflicts, technological divides, and climate change pressures, has forced both developed and developing economies to reexamine their development paths,” he said.

He added that these growth drivers are essential, including efficient and dynamic institutions; a workforce capable of lifelong learning and mastering new knowledge; innovation and digital technologies as indispensable components of competitiveness; a green and environmentally sustainable economy; and the system’s ability to learn, adapt, and cooperate.

Tran Van Tho, professor emeritus at Waseda University in Japan, noted that over the past 35 years, Vietnam’s average growth rate was 6.5 per cent. “Vietnam has not yet experienced a period of sustained double-digit growth (10 per cent annually for over 10 years) like Japan, South Korea, or China,” he said.

Regarding solutions for Vietnam’s economic growth, Tho proposed policies such as creating mechanisms for large enterprises to work with the state in shaping a long-term economic vision; encouraging tech transfer and management know-how through links with small- and medium-sized enterprises; expanding production and export scale in existing industries or developing new ones; and promoting policies to develop supporting industries.

“With the current determination to reform institutions and the policy proposals discussed, I believe Vietnam can achieve a higher growth rate in the coming period,” the professor stated. To this end, he emphasised full employment, universal free primary and secondary education, and proper investment in healthcare services.

“It is necessary to establish pension and unemployment insurance systems so that every citizen feels secure about their future,” he added.

At the open discussion session, representatives from regulatory agencies, international organisations like the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and scholars engaged in lively exchanges on growth drivers and major solutions such as institutional frameworks, sci-tech development, and training people in high technology, the digital economy, the green economy, and international governance.

MoIT is confident in hitting trade growth targets for 2025 The Ministry of Industry and Trade has expressed confidence that Vietnam can achieve its full-year export–import growth target of 12 per cent, citing robust results in the first seven months as a strong foundation.

World Bank forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth to reach 6.6 per cent in 2025 Vietnam’s GDP growth is forecast to reach 6.6 per cent in 2025, according to the latest report by the World Bank.

IMF projects Vietnam’s economic growth to ease to 6.5 per cent in 2025 Vietnam’s economic growth is predicted to slow to 6.5 per cent in 2025 due to the impact of US tariffs, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Jeff Johnson, managing director of AWS ASEAN

How have countries such as Vietnam been benefiting from Amazon’s investment, and how are they shaping the future of digital capabilities across ASEAN?

ASEAN is one of the most vibrant, fast-growing digital markets in the world, and the opportunity is extraordinary. We’re looking at a region with 61 per cent of its population that’s 383 million people under the age of 35.

Add to this the fact that ASEAN is the world’s fastest-growing internet market, with 125,000 new users coming online every single day. The digital economy here is projected to add an estimated $1 trillion to regional GDP over the next decade.

That young, tech-savvy population and booming digital economy translates into huge demand for cloud services. We’ve seen governments and businesses alike embracing a cloud-first mindset, from Singapore’s Smart Nation initiatives to Thailand’s ambitious digital transformation plans.

For AWS, it’s strategic not just in terms of market opportunity but also innovation, with some of the coolest new digital services and startups coming out of ASEAN. We want to empower all of that. That’s why you see us putting infrastructure in place, training more than 1.8 million people across ASEAN in cloud skills since 2017, highlighting local customer successes, and working hand-in-hand with regulators.

On our infrastructure investment, we now have four regions in Southeast Asia: Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. Each represents a significant investment: S$12 billion ($9.34 billion) additional investment in Singapore by 2028, over $6 billion in Malaysia by 2038, and more than $5 billion each in Thailand and Indonesia.

This infrastructure is crucial because it brings AI capabilities closer to our customers, reducing latency and enabling local data residency. Our investments are also creating jobs and contributing to the countries’ gross domestic products.

But what’s most exciting is how organisations are already leveraging this foundation to transform their businesses. Vietnam International Bank (VIB) is one such organisation, leveraging AWS to power its generative AI assistant, ViePro, built on Amazon Bedrock for their customer engagement platform. VIB further enhanced transparency and monitoring by using Amazon SageMaker for continuous model tuning to ensure that outputs adhere to compliance and ethical standards.

How does the company ensure that AI development in the region aligns with global best practices for responsible AI, which could include data privacy, ethics, and governance?

As AI adoption accelerates throughout ASEAN, responsible development has become paramount. AWS’s approach combines a robust technical framework with ethical governance, ensuring organisations can innovate confidently while maintaining the highest standards of responsibility and trust.

Our vision for responsible AI is brought to life through real customer transformations. Take Ascend Money, a leader in financial inclusion across Southeast Asia. By leveraging AWS’s GenAI capabilities, they’ve revolutionised nano-loan approvals from days to seconds, while maintaining strict security standards. Their success demonstrates how responsible AI can democratise financial services while protecting customer interests.

Local innovators like Arcanic AI exemplify how culturally aware AI solutions can be developed responsibly. Their use of Amazon SageMaker demonstrates that ethical AI development and cultural sensitivity can go hand in hand, creating solutions that truly resonate with local markets while adhering to global best practices.

These success stories are underpinned by AWS’s comprehensive security framework and specialised tools like Amazon Bedrock Guardrails and Amazon SageMaker Clarify, which address critical concerns around bias, transparency, and data protection. This enables organisations to push the boundaries of innovation while maintaining the highest standards of responsible AI development.

Can you highlight some successful AI-powered solutions or projects in Southeast Asia that have been built on AWS?

Across ASEAN, we are enabling transformative AI innovation across diverse sectors. From agile startups to established banks and tech companies, organisations are leveraging our platforms to accelerate growth, experiment with new technologies, and revolutionise their customer experiences.

Take Grab as an example. If you live in Southeast Asia, you have probably used Grab for rides, food delivery, or payments. What’s impressive is how they’ve scaled to serve more than 30 million monthly users across multiple countries and even launched new digital banks in just over a year. AWS is the platform behind the scenes making sure it all runs smoothly every single day. Their GenAI solutions run on Amazon Bedrock and help power critical production services while ensuring guardrails are in place.

Businesses in Vietnam are also increasingly adopting AWS’s cutting-edge GenAI capabilities, joining the wave of technological advancement sweeping across Southeast Asia. In the digital international banking space for example, TymeX uses Amazon Q Developer, our GenAI coding assistant, to boost their developers’ coding efficiency by over 40 per cent for, improve testing workflows by a staggering 90 per cent, and reducing testing time from five hours to just 30 minutes.

AI Hay stands out as another innovative example. Its community-driven search platform has captured widespread adoption with 15 million downloads, handling over 100 million monthly queries. Powered by AWS’s specialised AI chips and services, AI Hay delivers remarkable results: 80 per cent user satisfaction for Vietnamese language queries and 85 per cent interest match rates.

This demonstrates how AWS’s AI solutions can effectively serve millions of Vietnamese users while maintaining high performance and cost efficiency.

What industries in Vietnam do you see as early adopters or high-impact beneficiaries of your AI services?

In Vietnam, industry reports show rapid growth of Vietnam’s digital banking sector. Revenue from digital financial services is expected to reach nearly $3.8 billion by the end of 2025, with mobile transactions projected to grow by as much as 400 per cent in the same period.

The wider Vietnamese financial services industry is at the forefront of adopting AI services on AWS, leveraging GenAI and machine learning to drive efficiency, enhance customer engagement, and innovate faster.

Techcombank is another great example of digital banking transformation powered by AWS. Its journey showcases the perfect blend of technological innovation and human capital development. They saw great success utilising Amazon Q Developer to generate over 135,000 lines of secure, high-quality code, and went from a pilot of 50 developers to deploying it across their workforce of over 600 developers.

Using GenAI has allowed it to make resource provisioning 90 per cent faster, reduced monthly application costs by 30 per cent, and better serve its 15.4 million customers with enhanced digital banking services.

AWS has demonstrated how AI solutions can effectively serve millions of Vietnamese people

How is AWS helping the region build a skilled AI workforce, and how does it approach inclusivity and accessibility in AI education across rural and urban areas?

AWS stands ready as a strategic enabler of Vietnam’s digital transformation through three key pillars. Firstly, we ensure Vietnamese organisations have reliable access to cloud services through local infrastructure, including AWS OutPosts, Edge locations, and a planned Local Zone, to ensure high-performance cloud services nationwide.

Secondly, we’re democratising access to transformative technologies. Since our inception, AWS has reduced prices over 150 times while expanding our portfolio to include cutting-edge GenAI solutions. By offering access to premier large language models like Anthropic Claude, Meta’s Llama, and Amazon Nova, we’re ensuring Vietnamese organisations can compete on the global stage regardless of their size.

Thirdly, AWS is committed to building ASEAN’s digital future by developing its most crucial asset – its people. Our track record speaks volumes: since 2017, we’ve equipped over 1.8 million individuals across the region with vital cloud skills. We also exceeded our ambitious global of providing free AI skills training to two million people globally by the end of 2025 a year early.

Through educational initiatives like AWS Skills Builder, AWS Educate, and AWS Skills Guild, as well as local community schemes such as our AWS Vietnam Study Group and First Cloud Journey programme, we’re nurturing the next generation of tech talent. This skills transformation is essential for sustaining Vietnam’s digital momentum.